Prediction Case File
ADBEstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-08-19T22:23:20monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-16.95%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
361.20999146
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
400
Predicted objective
Invalidation
300
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
350.33
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
10.74%
Initial Invalidation Distance
16.95%
Risk / Reward
0.63
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-16.95%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality84.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-19T22:23:20
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-16T14:30:00
Resolved At
2026-01-16T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-16T14:30:00
Max High
370.85998535
Max High At
-
Min Low
327.5
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
3,592.1h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
fiMOl1qv2z8
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses three stock picks the presenter likes, even though the overall S&P 500 market is trading at high valuations. The first stock analyzed is ASML, currently priced at $742.16; the presenter believes its growth hasn't fully reflected in the market, considering it the toll bridge to innovation. He notes ASML's significant market share in semiconductor lithography, coupled with double-digit revenue growth in its installed base management segment. The risk he assigns is the dependence on China. Secondly, the presenter considers Adobe at a PE of 16 attractive, and suggests it has solid fundamentals, despite bad market sentiment; as it is a software business with a high percentage of recurring revenues and a dividend. Finally, OTIS at $87.43 trades below its average earnings and has strong service businesses with steady cashflows; the downside is China as well.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to talk about ASML stock, ADOBE stock & OTIS stock MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI & 15% OFF if you subscribe https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal