Prediction Case File
ETHUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-08-28T12:22:28monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-23.57%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
4,589.68
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
10,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
3,508
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
4,572
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
117.88%
Initial Invalidation Distance
23.57%
Risk / Reward
5
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-23.57%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality72.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-28T12:22:28
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved At
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Max High
4,769.36
Max High At
-
Min Low
3,435
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,040.62h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
Ub73Gojhl_M
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin and Ethereum charts. Bitcoin forms an inverse head and shoulders pattern, breaking the neckline and retesting it, suggesting a target of 114,556. The analyst has opened a 10 million position expecting this and has a potential longer target for the bull market. ETH's price is expected to go to $10,000 in 2 to 3 months, a strong uptrend with no sign of weakness. It needs to break the all-time high for an altcoin season.

Original Caption

Deposit 500 USDT and receive a 100 USDT Futures Bonus Coinflare: https://themoon.co/CoinflareCarl DAILY CRYPTO LIVE (18:45 GMT+4) https://youtube.com/live/xcXhAl_GrFI 🟨 WEEX: https://themoon.co/WEEXNewUser Get 10-100 USDT Coupon by Binding Phone & Email - 100% Position Airdrop + FREE VIP 2 (25% Fee Discount) 🟦 MEXC: https://themoon.co/MEXC NO KYC - $30,000 in Welcome Rewards! LeveX: https://themoon.co/LeveX Up to $40,000 Trading Bonus + $20K Prize Pool + Exclusive Content (NO KYC) 🟧 BYBIT: http://themoon.co/Bybit 10% DISCOUNT & $30,000 BONUS *BEST EXCHANGES RIGHT NOW FULL LIST* ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇ *Coinflare is the fastest growing alternative to Bybit, with LOWER FEES!* _Click this link to Get $100 USDT Future Bonus when you deposit $500 (Join Now & Get Up To 5,100 USDT Bonus)_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/CoinflareCarl 🟨 *WEEX is available in ALL COUNTRIES with NO KYC:* _Click this link to Get 10-100 USDT Coupon by Binding Phone & Email - 100% Position Airdrop + FREE VIP 2 (25% Fee Discount)_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/WEEXNewUser 🟦 *MEXC requires NO KYC:* _Click this link to get $30,000 in welcome rewards!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/MEXC *LeveX is a Social Crypto Exchange:* _Click this link to get Up to $40,000 Trading Bonus + $20K Prize Pool + Exclusive Content (NO KYC)_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/LeveX 🟢 *Bitunix requires NO KYC and is highly liquid:* _Click this link to get a free $100 after your first $500 deposit!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Bitunix 🟧 *Bybit is the MOST TRUSTED and liquid exchange for leverage trading in crypto:* _Click this link to get 10% fee reduction & $30,000 BONUS_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Bybit *Binance is the best exchange for SPOT TRADING:* _Click this link to get a permanent 20% fee reduction!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Binance *Ka.App is the best app for FIAT/crypto gateway, a MUST HAVE:* _Click this link to enjoy a deposit bonus and withdraw your crypto profits in EUR directly to your bank account!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/ka.app Want to earn passive income from Bybit? Become my sub-affiliate with this link: https://affiliates.bybit.com/v2/en/apply?affiliate_id=1205 *FOLLOW CARL MOON ONLINE* ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇ Vlog channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Carl Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/carlmoon Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/TheMoonCarl Tik-Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@carlrunefelt Tik-Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@moon Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheMoon Website 1: https://carlrunefelt.com Website 2: https://carlmoon.com ️ Join The Moon Show Community: Website: https://themoonshow.com Twitter: https://x.com/TheMoonShow Telegram Group: https://t.me/TheMoonGroup Telegram Alerts: https://t.me/TheMoonOfficial EXCHANGE TUTORIALS Binance: https://youtu.be/80zosJeVhU4 Bybit: https://youtu.be/_1M5gag_Zm0 BUY BITCOIN WITH FIAT ($ €): ⭕️ Ka.app: https://themoon.co/ka.app ⭕️ Swissborg Win up to $100: https://swissborg.com/r/themoon ⭕️ Binance $1,000 cashback: https://themoon.co/Binance EVERY BITCOIN INVESTOR NEEDS: ⭕️ Tradingview: https://themoon.co/Tradingview ⭕️ Ngrave Hardware Wallet: https://themoon.co/Ngrave ⭕️ GET NORDVPN UP TO 72% OFF + 4 EXTRA months: https://nordvpn.com/themoon ⭕️ Ledger Wallet: http://ledger.com/?r=f988 ️ I don't accept donations, use that money to invest in yourself or buy Bitcoin! If you want to support me, use any of the affiliate links above and leave a like & subscribe! THANK YOU! #Coinflare #WEEX #Bybit #Bitunix #Crypto #Bitcoin #Binance #Lbank #MEXC #LeveX DISCLAIMER: By accessing this channel, you agree to the following: Content is for general information and entertainment only—not financial, legal, or professional advice. No guarantee is made regarding accuracy; use at your own risk. Views are my personal. Investing involves risk—do your own research. Not intended for users in the UK, US, India, China, or other restricted jurisdictions. PROMOTIONS & AFFILIATES: Ads and links may appear but do not imply endorsement in any way. Sponsored content reflects personal views. Compensation may be received—verify third-party services independently.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal