Prediction Case File
SPXstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

CiovaccoCapital2025-08-30T02:26:31monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-0.96%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
6,461.81982422
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
6,900
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,400
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
6,481.4
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
6.78%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.96%
Risk / Reward
7.09
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-0.96%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-30T02:26:31
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Max High
6,461.81982422
Max High At
-
Min Low
6,369.56982422
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
83.05h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

CiovaccoCapital
YouTube · @CiovaccoCapital
Reliability
72.63
Success Rate
78.26%
Consistency
94.19
Risk Adjusted
2.35
Avg Return
3.48%
Avg Quality
3.87
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
JfpryTiJ9Do
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes the S&P 500 (SPX) using technical indicators to assess its future direction. It highlights that despite prevailing bearish sentiment reflected in the AAII sentiment survey, the SPX displays a bullish setup based on the BIL/SPY ratio. Short-term bonds suggest the market is not overly concerned with inflation. XLE to SPY ratio shows no concerning trend. SPX/XLP shows strong positive slope. The analysis emphasizes key support levels and suggests that the current economic backdrop still favors a bullish outlook, with significant drawdown levels calculated for risk management. A new peak is expected in the intermediate long term.The analysis doesn't exclude any potential pullback given high volatility. It does provide support and resistance level ranges so the user can reassess according to his risk management.

Original Caption

The AAII Sentiment Poll still has a higher percentage of bears relative to bulls, even in the context of favorable stock market outcomes. Are the charts starting to align with the bears?

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal