Prediction Case File
CRWDstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-08-30T20:13:28long_termfundamental
Live Outcome
-1.54%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
423.48001099
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
350
Predicted objective
Invalidation
430
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
423.7
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
17.35%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.54%
Risk / Reward
11.27
Timeframe
Long Term
Live Position
-1.54%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-30T20:13:28
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-09-09T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-09-09T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-09-09T13:30:00
Max High
431.00698853
Max High At
-
Min Low
402.66000366
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
233.27h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
IShH4k8ayhc
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The speaker analyzes three stocks: Marvell Technologies (MRVL), Costco (COST), and CrowdStrike (CRWD). MRVL is currently trading at $62.86, down 44.64% year-to-date, and the speaker notes that the decline is due to Q3 guidance. The speaker says the custom AI chips present an interesting opportunity. The speaker provides the second stock to be COST which is down 10% over the last six months. The speaker provides valuation metrics. The speaker then covers CRWD a stock that he used to have. CRWD is exposed to cyber security. The speaker talks about that it could be undervalued

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an analysis on Marvel stock, CostCO stock, and CrowdStrike stock. MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt 0:00 First stock 7:04 2nd stock 9:58 3rd stock FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal