Prediction Case File
ADBEstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-09-12T22:07:01monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-0.66%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
349.29000854
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
693
Predicted objective
Invalidation
347
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
350
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
98.4%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.66%
Risk / Reward
150.09
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-0.66%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-12T22:07:01
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-09-15T14:30:00
Resolved At
2025-09-15T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-09-15T14:30:00
Max High
358
Max High At
-
Min Low
345.91000366
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
64.37h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
MVu-5AWIDEo
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes Adobe (ADBE) following its earnings report, noting a modest 2.6% increase despite being down 40% YOY. The stock's PE ratio has decreased from 55 to 16. The latest report showed beats on EPS ($5.31 vs. $5.18 expected) and revenue ($5.99B vs. $5.91B expected). The company expects EPS between $5.35 and $5.40 for the fourth quarter against analyst estimates of $5.34. The company mentions AI 110 times in the report and the company has annual AI run rate of $3.5 Billion last year. They anticipate $250M ARR for Q4. He shows an Adobe EPS valuation model and believes that ADBE could move up to a price of $693, from the current price of $362, calculating the fail bound price to be $347.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an ADOBE stock analysis and talk about the risks and upside potential of ADOBE stock MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE access to Fiscal.Ai for 2 weeks & 15% off if you decide to subscribe: https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal