Prediction Case File
USOILstockbullishVerified Correct

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-09-14T17:13:25monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
22.83%
Performance since published
Correct
Publish Price
62.68999863
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
77
Predicted objective
Invalidation
40
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
62.99
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
22.83%
Initial Invalidation Distance
36.19%
Risk / Reward
0.63
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
22.83%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-14T17:13:25
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-03-05T05:00:00
Resolved At
2026-03-05T05:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-03-05T05:00:00
Max High
66.41999817
Max High At
-
Min Low
56.34999847
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
4,115.77h
Result
Correct
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
sE7y4BcXR0I
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst discusses the energy sector, focusing on the price of crude oil. He mentions that he has had successful trades in the energy space before. He believes that crude oil at $63 per barrel is very cheap. The analyst examines a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas regarding shut-in prices for existing wells. In the Permian region, the shut-in price is roughly $33 to $35 per barrel. He notes that existing wells would need a WTI price of between $41 and $45 to remain operational. For new wells in the Permian, the break-even price point is around $62-$63, potentially reaching $70 per barrel. Based on government budget expectations 30% of Saudi's income comes from Aramco Dividends which is to roughly $77 a barrel, which the model infers a good price target.

Original Caption

Friends! In This Video, Im going to discuss a sector which I believe could outperform in 2026 MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI & 15% off if you decide to subscribe https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal