Prediction Case File
AVAXUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Krown2025-09-22T17:02:53monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-24.41%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
31.75
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
53
Predicted objective
Invalidation
24
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
31.465
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
66.93%
Initial Invalidation Distance
24.41%
Risk / Reward
2.74
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-24.41%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
20%
Actionable
20%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate20.00%
Actionable20.00%
Derived Quality36.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-22T17:02:53
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved At
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
435.95h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Krown
YouTube · @ECKrown
Reliability
55.01
Success Rate
45.02%
Consistency
90.26
Risk Adjusted
-4.42
Avg Return
-0.27%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
wT23_mDI10c
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The cryptocurrency analyst discusses the Bitcoin's price at $7,851.39, Ethereum's price is $197.14. Litecoin is $48.43. The analyst talks about possible scenarios given the market structure, where Bitcoin with jetpacks and bears with red lightsabers may be involved. The analyst evaluates whether they might go to new all-time high’s, or to new lows. The analyst sees Bitcoin is correcting. Analyst discusses the US market, mentions resistance and support levels. Then, looks at Litecoin. Then to another altcoin, Avax, before sharing his opinion. He sees the possibility of Bitcoin getting over the crash. There is "hope" to have it, then the analyst looks at the hair.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal