Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

MMCrypto2025-09-17T17:35:44weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-3.65%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
115,772.66
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
95,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
120,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
116,000
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
17.94%
Initial Invalidation Distance
3.65%
Risk / Reward
4.91
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-3.65%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-17T17:35:44
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-02T16:00:00
Resolved At
2025-10-02T16:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-02T16:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
358.4h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

MMCrypto
YouTube · @MMCryptoTube
Reliability
43.45
Success Rate
28.7%
Consistency
85.72
Risk Adjusted
-15.05
Avg Return
-4.39%
Avg Quality
3.36
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
X9CeMv6OWjY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin using daily and weekly Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ribbons. On the daily chart, the EMA ribbon has flipped, indicating a potential uptrend. The analyst highlights a retest that was unsuccessful for bears, leading to a breakout. The weekly EMA ribbon, however, is still showing Bitcoin holding above, which is typical in a bull market. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin needs to close below 95000 with a weekly candle to confirm a bearish trend. A bounce from the daily EMA after a pullback would be bullish. Until 95000 is breached, the analyst remains cautious but indicates a bearish potential. The analysis focuses on key support levels and EMA ribbon flips to gauge potential market direction.

Original Caption

Bitcoin what now

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal