Prediction Case File
SPGIstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-09-24T22:06:51monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-12.06%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
490.82000732
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
400
Predicted objective
Invalidation
550
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
496.76
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
18.5%
Initial Invalidation Distance
12.06%
Risk / Reward
1.53
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-12.06%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality72.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-24T22:06:51
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Resolved At
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Max High
494.42001343
Max High At
-
Min Low
470
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
2,704.38h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
XRqAxrBdEjs
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis assesses S&P Global (SPGI), noting its 9% decline in the last 5 days and 10% decline this past month. SPGI makes money from 5 different segments. The analysis points out to S&P Dow Jones Indices which have 20 trillion USD indexed or benchmarked with $27.7 trillion indexed to all the S&P Dow Jones Industries. The credit rating business generates high margins. The business makes money from commodity insights. The mobility with Carfax delivers the best performance. SPGI has good earning power, it grew revenue in prior period. Stock was trading at a 30-31 PE, which is expensive due to the poor revenue growth, current PE is 28. The stock competes in certain data with Factset, but with an average PE of almost 30 and revenue that is only expected to grow 11-12% it would be appropriate for the stock to drop below 400.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I will conduct an S&P Global stock analysis and discuss the risks and upside potential of SPGI stock. MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
SPGI Bearish Signal by The Patient Investor | Tahlil Plus AI