Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Moneyvest2025-09-26T00:17:36dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.45%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
6,604.20019531
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
6,450
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,700
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
6,604
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
2.33%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.45%
Risk / Reward
1.61
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-1.45%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-26T00:17:36
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-01T16:30:00
Resolved At
2025-10-01T16:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-01T16:30:00
Max High
6,705.81982422
Max High At
-
Min Low
6,604.20019531
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
136.2h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Moneyvest
YouTube · @moneyvestpro
Reliability
56.58
Success Rate
47.08%
Consistency
92.89
Risk Adjusted
-3.12
Avg Return
0.09%
Avg Quality
3.62
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
75ZF28gVmvY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a comprehensive market update, indicating a potential shift toward bearish momentum across various sectors. It highlights that AI trades and tech stocks may be experiencing fatigue, contributing to downward pressure on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The analysis identifies specific support and resistance levels for several stocks including Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia and also for gold and silver. For Apple the support is predicted at 249 and the resistance at 259. The techincal view proposes to keep a dry powder ready since a big pull back can happen at any time. Some technical indicators show the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Ethereum are overbought, technically stretched and about to have a pull back.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal