Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-07-23T14:19:31intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.66%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
117,959.29
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
120,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
116,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
117,847.5
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
1.73%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.66%
Risk / Reward
1.04
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-1.66%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible60.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality60.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-07-23T14:19:31
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-07-25T03:00:00
Resolved At
2025-07-25T03:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-07-25T03:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
36.67h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
3BAlwHzLP6s
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum. It suggests a potential continuation of the short-term dump for both, but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, referencing several positive attributes and charts: ETH ETF flows, rising treasury amounts, the price is seen moving to top $12,3, and several bullish patterns. Bitcoin has a linear monthly support line at $114000. A Bitcoin ETF 2-day analysis shows a red number with money flowing to ETH. Litecoin and doge analysis were also given, both forming double tops.The content also features promotional campaigns that Coinflare and WeeX are currently undertaking, along with the disclaimer that nothing is financial advice. A mention of having sold some bitcoin for ETH. Also mentioned that some of the top 10 allcoins are worth investing in

Original Caption

Coinflare: https://coinflare.com/campaign/the-moon-show-exclusive-starter-pack FREE 100 USDT (NO KYC) 🟨 WEEX: https://www.weex.com/newbieActivities?id=520&type=BEGINNER_TASK&vipCode=g2gb FREE 400 USDT (NO VPN) BYBIT: https://themoon.co/DailyBybit 10% DISCOUNT & $30,000 BONUS Follow The Moon Show on X: https://x.com/@TheMoonShow Join Our Alerts Channel: https://t.me/TheMoonOfficial GET NORDVPN 72% OFF: https://nordvpn.com/themoon EURO TO CRYPTO: https://themoon.co/ShowKa.app ️ Play Medieval Empires: https://medievalempires.com Hire or Work in Crypto: https://www.CryptoJobs.com Crypto Kid: https://www.youtube.com/@Crypto-Kid THE MOON SHOW: Watch Carl and Crypto Kid give you the latest in crypto! Leave a like, or deal with the consequence of NOT leaving a like. Get in touch: show@moongroup.com #TheMoonShow #Bitcoin #Ethereum DISCLAIMER The content, opinions and other information in the videos are intended as general information and for entertainment purposes only and it is not to be construed as professional or financial advice. Information in the videos is solely the opinion of the speaker who is not a financial advisor nor a firm. I do not have any representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the accuracy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information. Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk. I, including directors, officers, employees, affiliates, agents and representatives, assumes no liability for any errors or omissions in the information presented nor the availability of said information. I disclaim responsibility for any losses, injuries or damages resulting from the display or use of any information. Investing always comes with a considerable risk. I recommend viewers to do their own research before engaging in any trade activity. The channel may contain links to other channels, internet sites or technologies supplied by third parties. I do not exercise control over legality of Third Party Sites or their compliance with applicable laws. Therefore, I explicitly disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising from your use or access to any Third Party Sites. I do not intend to make any direct or indirect market communication to users and consumers based in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, India or China. By accessing this channel, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined in this disclaimer. PROMOTION AND AFFILIATES The appearance of third-party advertisements and hyperlinks does not constitute an endorsement, guarantee, warranty, or recommendation by me. I am not your broker, intermediary, representative, agent, or advisor. This channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors or affiliates. The promotion only reflects my personal honest opinion of the product. I may receive compensation for the promotions in my videos. Conduct your own research before deciding to use any third-party service.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal