Prediction Case File
ETHUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-07-25T12:42:29intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.12%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
3,727.97
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
4,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
3,500
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
3,646
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
7.3%
Initial Invalidation Distance
6.12%
Risk / Reward
1.19
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-6.12%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-07-25T12:42:29
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-01T20:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-01T20:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-01T20:00:00
Max High
3,941
Max High At
-
Min Low
3,491
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
175.28h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
DigxjmaHgXo
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. The analysis begins by noting Bitcoin's breakdown from a horizontal triangle pattern, with a target of $114,000, influenced by an inverse head and shoulders pattern and the presence of a CME gap. Ethereum is presented as holding up well, showing relative strength compared to Bitcoin and a target of $4000. Finally, Dogecoin is being shown in a support level with the intention to open positions. The analyst shows his intention to open positions in Ethereum, Dogecoin and Solana, but particularly Dogecoin.

Original Caption

DEPOSIT $50, GET $100 ON COINFLARE!!! Coinflare: https://themoon.co/CoinflareCarl 🟨 WEEX: https://themoon.co/WEEXNewUser NO KYC - Earn 20% Deposit Reward (Up to $30,000 for Whales) + FREE VIP 2 (25% Fee Discount) 🟦 MEXC: https://themoon.co/MEXCairdrop NO KYC - 1,000 USDT Position Airdrop LeveX: https://themoon.co/LeveX Up To $40K Trading Bonus + $20K Prize Pool! 🟧 BYBIT: http://themoon.co/Bybit 10% DISCOUNT & $30,000 BONUS *BEST EXCHANGES RIGHT NOW FULL LIST* ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇ *Coinflare is the fastest growing alternative to Bybit, with LOWER FEES!* _Click this link to Get $100 when you deposit $50 (Join Now & Get Up To 5,100 USDT Bonus)_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/CoinflareCarl 🟨 *WEEX is available in ALL COUNTRIES with NO KYC:* _Click this link to Earn 20% Deposit Reward (Up to $30,000 for Whales) + FREE VIP 2 (25% Fee Discount)_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/WEEXNewUser 🟦 *MEXC requires NO KYC:* _Click this link to get 1,000 USDT Position Airdrop!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/MEXCairdrop *LeveX is a Social Crypto Exchange:* _Click this link to get Up To $40K Trading Bonus + $20,000 Prize Pool_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/LeveX 🟢 *Bitunix requires NO KYC and is highly liquid:* _Click this link to get a free $100 after your first $500 deposit!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Bitunix 🟧 *Bybit is the MOST TRUSTED and liquid exchange for leverage trading in crypto:* _Click this link to get 10% fee reduction & $30,000 BONUS_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Bybit *Binance is the best exchange for SPOT TRADING:* _Click this link to get a permanent 20% fee reduction!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/Binance *Ka.App is the best app for FIAT/crypto gateway, a MUST HAVE:* _Click this link to enjoy a deposit bonus and withdraw your crypto profits in EUR directly to your bank account!_ Sign up here https://themoon.co/ka.app Want to earn passive income from Bybit? Become my sub-affiliate with this link: https://affiliates.bybit.com/v2/en/apply?affiliate_id=1205 *FOLLOW CARL MOON ONLINE* ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇ Vlog channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Carl Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/carlmoon Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/TheMoonCarl Tik-Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@carlrunefelt Tik-Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@moon Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheMoon Website 1: https://carlrunefelt.com Website 2: https://carlmoon.com ️ Join The Moon Show Community: Website: https://themoonshow.com Twitter: https://x.com/TheMoonShow Telegram Group: https://t.me/TheMoonGroup Telegram Alerts: https://t.me/TheMoonOfficial EXCHANGE TUTORIALS Binance: https://youtu.be/80zosJeVhU4 Bybit: https://youtu.be/_1M5gag_Zm0 BUY BITCOIN WITH FIAT ($ €): ⭕️ Ka.app: https://themoon.co/ka.app ⭕️ Swissborg Win up to $100: https://swissborg.com/r/themoon ⭕️ Binance $1,000 cashback: https://themoon.co/Binance EVERY BITCOIN INVESTOR NEEDS: ⭕️ Tradingview: https://themoon.co/Tradingview ⭕️ Ngrave Hardware Wallet: https://themoon.co/Ngrave ⭕️ GET NORDVPN UP TO 72% OFF + 4 EXTRA months: https://nordvpn.com/themoon ⭕️ Ledger Wallet: http://ledger.com/?r=f988 ️ I don't accept donations, use that money to invest in yourself or buy Bitcoin! If you want to support me, use any of the affiliate links above and leave a like & subscribe! THANK YOU! #Coinflare #WEEX #Bybit #Bitunix #Crypto #Bitcoin #Binance #Lbank #MEXC #LeveX DISCLAIMER: By accessing this channel, you agree to the following: Content is for general information and entertainment only—not financial, legal, or professional advice. No guarantee is made regarding accuracy; use at your own risk. Views are my personal. Investing involves risk—do your own research. Not intended for users in the UK, US, India, China, or other restricted jurisdictions. PROMOTIONS & AFFILIATES: Ads and links may appear but do not imply endorsement in any way. Sponsored content reflects personal views. Compensation may be received—verify third-party services independently.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal