Prediction Case File
SMCIstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

IC Trades2025-10-03T03:25:04monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-22.49%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
52.50999832
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
62.32
Predicted objective
Invalidation
40.7
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
52.93
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
18.68%
Initial Invalidation Distance
22.49%
Risk / Reward
0.83
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-22.49%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-10-03T03:25:04
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-06T17:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-06T17:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-06T17:30:00
Max High
58.68999863
Max High At
-
Min Low
50.79999924
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
830.07h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

IC Trades
YouTube · @ICMakesTrades
Reliability
51.35
Success Rate
39.62%
Consistency
88.45
Risk Adjusted
-8.5
Avg Return
-0.87%
Avg Quality
3.62
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
M5d46ASc7dY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis covers SMCI (Super Micro Computer Incorporated), starting with a review of past performance after a gap down due to bad earnings. The stock found a bottom around $40 and broke out of a descending range, entering a chop zone between $44 and $47. Recent news regarding a new lineup of AI-optimized servers is considered positive, improving investor outlook. The presenter highlights the stock's reactive nature, using past resistances as support. The current price is near $52.50, and the analysis targets filling the gap up to $62.32 within the next few months if the stock maintains above the $50 psychological level and sees increasing volume. The analysis is invalidated if it reaches the price of 40.70. The weekly chart shows a past flag and pole pattern to $122.90, with SMCI volatile. The analyst is watching the $50 mark for support and the $62.32 level for resistance.

Original Caption

Using Technical Analysis, we analyzed Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) stock and predicted where price would go within the next few days to weeks. If you found value from this video, consider subscribing for more! Comment your $SMCI price predictions below and any other stocks that you would like me to cover! Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor #smci #stockmarketanalysis #technicalanalysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
SMCI Bullish Signal by IC Trades | Tahlil Plus AI