Prediction Case File
ASMLstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA2025-10-18T17:45:03monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-30.01%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
1,029.27001953
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
692.91
Predicted objective
Invalidation
1,338.11
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
1,015.51
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
32.68%
Initial Invalidation Distance
30.01%
Risk / Reward
1.09
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-30.01%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-10-18T17:45:03
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Resolved At
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-15T14:30:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
2,132.73h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA
YouTube · @parkevtatevosiancfa9544
Reliability
41.86
Success Rate
25.87%
Consistency
84.54
Risk Adjusted
-8.05
Avg Return
-2.47%
Avg Quality
3.75
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
OxazTivf9u0
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses the financial performance and outlook of ASML. In the most recently completed quarter, third-quarter net sales came in at €7.5 billion. The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, and they anticipate it will move closer to 60%. Q3 net income was €2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales. Q3 net system bookings came in at €5.4 billion, split between €3.6 billion in EUV systems and €1.8 billion in non-EUV systems. They intend to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026. They expect Q4 total net sales to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion, and a gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 51% and 53%. China's total net sales in 2026 are expected to decline significantly. The fundamental analysis rates the intrinsic value per share at $692.91, far from the current market price of $1015.51.

Original Caption

ASML is one of the leading suppliers to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Membership: Join my YouTube channel membership and unlock exclusive perks! As a member, you'll get early access to videos to stay ahead with the latest content before anyone else. Investor tier members get access to my spreadsheets, and VIP discord members get access to our private discord community. Don't miss out— click the link below and join our community today! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwKB_00dPL3x5XmHF9IJCrg/join Unlock the power of intelligent investing with my six-step investing framework—a proven system designed by a university professor and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). Frustrated by the lack of frameworks that met my needs and high standards, I developed this comprehensive guide to help investors at all levels make confident, informed decisions. In this book, you'll learn how to assess opportunities, manage risk, and build a portfolio that works for you. No investor should dive into the market without a solid strategy, and this step-by-step framework provides the roadmap you need. Whether you're just starting or looking to refine your approach, this guide will empower you to take control of your financial future. Link for my book! https://parkevtatevosian.com/products/make-money-buying-and-selling-stocks-a-6-step-framework-for-evaluating-publicly-traded-companies A portion of this video is sponsored by The Motley Fool. Visit https://fool.com/parkev to get access to my special offer. The Motley Fool Stock Advisor returns are 780% as of 9/26/2024 and measured against the S&P 500 returns of 168% as of 9/26/2024. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. All investing involves a risk of loss. Individual investment results may vary, not all Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks have performed as well. The primary data source I use for my investment research is Finchat.io. They have been kind enough to offer my viewers a discount using this link. https://fiscal.ai/?via=parkev Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Where can I buy your book? You can purchase my book at parkevtatevosian.com. Is your book available as a physical copy or an ebook? My book is available as an ebook. How do I access your spreadsheets with the discounted cash flow valuations and stock recommendations? You can access my spreadsheets with a channel membership at the Investor tier. I purchased the Investor tier membership but cannot see the spreadsheets. Where can I find them? Go to my YouTube channel page under Membership Benefits, and expand the member info section. About Me: I am a university professor specializing in business, finance, economics, and accounting, with extensive experience as a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). In addition to teaching, I am the author of Make Money Buying and Selling Stocks: A 6-Step Framework for Evaluating Publicly Traded Companies. Over the years, I have published thousands of videos and written over 2,000 articles for The Motley Fool, sharing insights on investing and personal finance. My passion lies in empowering others to make informed financial decisions through education and practical, proven frameworks. *NEW: Join my Substack and receive my monthly newsletter for free! https://parkevtatevosiancfa.substack.com/subscribe?params=%5Bobject%20Object%5D Disclaimer: The content on this channel is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, or investment advice. While I share my opinions and insights, I am not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. The creator is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided in the videos. Parkev Tatevosian will earn a commission or referral bonus for sending traffic to partner sites.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
ASML Bearish Signal by Parkev Tatevosian, CFA | Tahlil Plus AI