Prediction Case File
JOBYstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options2025-10-19T01:00:23monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-10.66%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
15.67000008
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
20
Predicted objective
Invalidation
14
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
15.53
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
27.63%
Initial Invalidation Distance
10.66%
Risk / Reward
2.59
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-10.66%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-10-19T01:00:23
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-07T14:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-07T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-07T14:30:00
Max High
17.5
Max High At
-
Min Low
15.67000008
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
469.48h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options
YouTube · @RickOrford
Reliability
46.21
Success Rate
32.35%
Consistency
71.23
Risk Adjusted
-10.62
Avg Return
0.64%
Avg Quality
3.57
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
OBKLV-N_CHY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses Joby Aviation's stock, which is up over 90% this year and currently trading around $15.50. The presenter highlights that Joby has joined the White House's Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Pilot Program, enabling real-world operations before FAA certification. The presenter says Joby now owns Blade's passenger network in New York, providing a real business model with potential recurring revenue. The host states that most people are missing this point, as this new ownership provides a solid business model for Joby with the potential for recurring revenue on day one. Based on the current upward trend, a price target of 20 within 12 months is inferred, with a fail bound around 14.

Original Caption

Joby Aviation stock is up 90% this year. Will it continue? Joby joined the White House's Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Pilot Program, giving them a head start over competitors. They also own Blade's passenger network, creating a real business model. #JobyAviation #EVTOL #StockAnalysis #Aviation #Innovation

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal