Prediction Case File
TSMstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Kenan Grace2025-10-19T14:05:12monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-8.53%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
295.19000244
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
350
Predicted objective
Invalidation
270
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
295.94
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
18.57%
Initial Invalidation Distance
8.53%
Risk / Reward
2.18
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-8.53%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-10-19T14:05:12
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-21T14:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-21T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-21T14:30:00
Max High
303.6499939
Max High At
-
Min Low
295.19000244
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
792.4h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Kenan Grace
YouTube · @KenanGrace
Reliability
49.38
Success Rate
43.24%
Consistency
86.26
Risk Adjusted
-7.43
Avg Return
-1.6%
Avg Quality
3.19
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
yGg6-DZoOsg
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). The stock is currently at $295.94, down approximately 2% on the day. Analyst targets range from $250 to $400. Wall Street anticipates positive earnings. The analyst is buying more. Taiwan Semiconductor’s PE is 32, while the industry PE is 47. The earnings are up 30% year over year and the revenue is up 27%.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal