Prediction Case File
APLDstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options2025-11-06T02:00:46monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-24.45%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
33.09000015
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
168.66
Predicted objective
Invalidation
25
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
33.86
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
409.7%
Initial Invalidation Distance
24.45%
Risk / Reward
16.76
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-24.45%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-06T02:00:46
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-13T14:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-13T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-13T14:30:00
Max High
33.90000153
Max High At
-
Min Low
31.03000069
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
180.48h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options
YouTube · @RickOrford
Reliability
46.21
Success Rate
32.35%
Consistency
71.23
Risk Adjusted
-10.62
Avg Return
0.64%
Avg Quality
3.57
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
ZRsXZXtyUJY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses Applied Digital (APLD), highlighting its significant year-to-date increase of 344%. The analysis emphasizes APLD's shift from crypto mining to becoming an AI infrastructure provider, having signed $16 billion in long-term contracts. The company hit an all-time high of $40.20. The analyst questions whether this rally is sustainable and notes that these contracts represent over 100 times their current annual revenue. The key risk is the firm’s ability to deliver on infrastructure before competitors erode their market advantage. The analysis suggests that the stock's future hinges on the company's ability to translate contract revenue into significant profits.

Original Caption

Applied Digital is up 344% this year, building the AI infrastructure, not just hyping it. Can this rally last? $16B in contracts is huge, but can they deliver before the competition? #AppliedDigital #AIInfrastructure #StockMarket #TechStocks #InvestmentAnalysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal