Prediction Case File
USOILstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2025-11-14T08:18:50dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.98%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
59.68000031
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
61.3
Predicted objective
Invalidation
58.5
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
59.93
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Positive
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
2.71%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.98%
Risk / Reward
1.37
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-1.98%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-14T08:18:50
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-20T23:00:00
Resolved At
2025-11-20T23:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-20T23:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
158.68h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.16
Success Rate
58.06%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.78
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
cf_iLXdlQMI
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD), and crude oil (USOIL). Gold experienced a $100 crack between 6:30 pm and 11:30 pm, dropping from $4240 to $4145, then recovered to around $4206. The support for gold is at $4190 and resistance is at $4230, suggesting a flat trend. Silver is currently around $53.27, near where the prior video was made. A strong recovery is seen with less wicks, and a flat to positive trend is analyzed with a support at $51.80 and resistance at $53.70. Crude oil has risen from $59 to nearly $60, despite the news catalyst, so the analyst suggest being cautious due to the big candle. China's unemployment data influenced crude oil. Support for crude is at $58.50 and resistance at $61.30, with a positive trend.

Original Caption

Gold Consolidating | GOLD ANALYSIS 14 November | XAUUSD Forecast TODAY November 14 | Crude Oil Update Daily Report Gold Analysis for Next Week https://youtu.be/q2IDap8H4Bs Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/itsarafatlive #xauusdanalysis #forexsignalsprovider #forexgoldanalysis #forexgoldupdate #goldforecast #goldprediction #goldsignals #xauusdsignals #crudeoilsignals these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos related keywords tomorrow gold market prediction best strategy for commodity trading tomorrow market prediction best tradingview indicator for xauusd best trading strategy for crypto forex trading for beginners in india gold technical analysis today crude oil prediction for tomorrow gold signals provider in dubai gold prediction for next week tomorrow commodity market prediction gold price analysis today natural gas prediction tomorrow how to trade xauusd crude oil best trading strategy in uae gold forecast provider in bangladesh easy gold analysis video in hindi best technical analysis for forex trading in urdu trading guide for silver price silver market analysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal