Prediction Case File
JOBYstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options2025-11-18T23:00:55monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-13.82%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
13.92500019
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
22
Predicted objective
Invalidation
12
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
14
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
57.99%
Initial Invalidation Distance
13.82%
Risk / Reward
4.19
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-13.82%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-18T23:00:55
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Resolved At
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Max High
14.26000023
Max High At
-
Min Low
13.51000023
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,709.98h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options
YouTube · @RickOrford
Reliability
46.21
Success Rate
32.35%
Consistency
71.23
Risk Adjusted
-10.62
Avg Return
0.64%
Avg Quality
3.57
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
p-3ZjLVsHiI
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis discusses Joby Aviation (JOBY) and questions whether the stock is a buy at current levels. The analysis cites Wall Street consensus among ten analysts, assigning JOBY a "hold" rating, noting a decrease in ratings over the past three months. A high target price of $22 is set by analysts, reflecting a potential 60% upside. The video mentions Joby's potential significant advantage in the air taxi industry after acquiring Blade's passenger business. The company is in the final stages of FAA approval. Despite the progress analysts remain cautious. The future depends on the rate of certification and adoption of air taxis.

Original Caption

Joby Aviation's future hangs in the balance: rapid certification and adoption vs. financial struggles. Analysts are cautious despite Blade deal and FAA progress. Will Joby soar or stay grounded? #JobyAviation #AirTaxi #EVTOL #StockAnalysis #Aviation

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal