Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Jacob Crypto Bury2025-11-19T23:27:21weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.7%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
91,442.49
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
65,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
93,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
89,000
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
28.92%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.7%
Risk / Reward
16.98
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-1.7%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality84.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-19T23:27:21
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-20T05:00:00
Resolved At
2025-11-20T05:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-20T05:00:00
Max High
93,160
Max High At
-
Min Low
91,185.26
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
5.53h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Jacob Crypto Bury
YouTube · @JacobCryptoBury
Reliability
44.33
Success Rate
30.1%
Consistency
80.23
Risk Adjusted
-26.25
Avg Return
-6.72%
Avg Quality
3.26
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
qJn8ZSqCjSM
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis discusses Bitcoin's current price at around $89,000, noting a 4% drop for the day. It highlights that Bitcoin has not broken its previous high of $126,000. The 50-week moving average is identified as a key indicator; Bitcoin previously bounced off of it but has now broken below it. The analyst suggests a potential retest of the 50-week moving average or a further drop. If the price continues downward, it could reach $75,000-$76,000. The 200-week moving average is also mentioned as a potential future point of contact. The video suggest the price of Bitcoin could reach a target of $65,000 by June of next year or as low as $57,000 by December, or even $82,000 in 2027, it depends in what point the Bitcoin reach the 200 week moving average. The analyst states that the crucial indicator is the 200 week moving average since 2013. The target is around $65000, the fail bound $93000.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal