Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Jacob Crypto Bury2025-11-20T03:00:49weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-18.75%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
92,629.9
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
57,551.52
Predicted objective
Invalidation
110,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
89,198
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
37.87%
Initial Invalidation Distance
18.75%
Risk / Reward
2.02
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-18.75%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality60.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-20T03:00:49
First Checked
2026-05-19T02:08:08
Last Checked
2026-05-19T02:08:08
Resolved
2026-05-19T02:08:08
Resolved At
2026-05-19T02:08:08
Resolved Candle
2025-05-21T23:00:00
Max High
110,797.38
Max High At
2025-05-21T23:00:00
Min Low
74,508
Min Low At
2025-04-07T07:00:00
Time To Result
4,319.12h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Jacob Crypto Bury
YouTube · @JacobCryptoBury
Reliability
44.33
Success Rate
30.1%
Consistency
80.23
Risk Adjusted
-26.25
Avg Return
-6.72%
Avg Quality
3.26
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
cWXWTIi7W6w
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis evaluates the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $60,000. The analysis checks historical data, analyzing top-to-bottom volatility in past bull market cycles. 2011 saw a 94% correction. 2013 saw an 86% correction. 2017 saw an 84.39% correction. The most recent cycle saw a 77.52% correction. Projecting a 70% correction, the analysis infers a potential drop to $37,000. The analysis uses the 200-week moving average trendline to calculate potential theoretical bottoms. Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 is a possibility. Analysing relative strength index and trend lines. However, all the analysis is theoretical and will depend what could happen during this bearish market.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal