Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2025-11-22T13:53:36weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-14.97%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
83,870.38
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
126,273
Predicted objective
Invalidation
71,316
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
84,016.88
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
50.56%
Initial Invalidation Distance
14.97%
Risk / Reward
3.38
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-14.97%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-22T13:53:36
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Resolved At
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Max High
85,325.94
Max High At
-
Min Low
83,870.38
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,786.1h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.88
Success Rate
42.29%
Consistency
89.03
Risk Adjusted
-11.26
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.28
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
AZc-R5Hh7Ms
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

Bitcoin's recent decline of 36% from its all-time high to $80,562 is framed within historical context and potential contributing factors, such as a code error leading to cascading liquidations and a strategic market-maker selling to create liquidity. Citing Tom Lee, stablecoin depegs on October 10 are said to be pivotal. It is analyzed that a massive seller is at play. The market showed indecisiveness regarding a 25-bps decrease. The analyst also presented that 71.2% of investors are underwater. A new bull market is possible and this depends if it can reach the gold market cap. The analysis also points to a large potential of a large market maker strategically selling.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal