Prediction Case File
NQ1!stockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Krown2025-11-21T22:24:03monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.09%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
24,347.5
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
23,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
25,830
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
24,244
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
5.53%
Initial Invalidation Distance
6.09%
Risk / Reward
0.91
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-6.09%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-21T22:24:03
First Checked
2026-05-19T01:38:19
Last Checked
2026-05-19T01:38:19
Resolved
2026-05-19T01:38:19
Resolved At
2026-05-19T01:38:19
Resolved Candle
2025-12-05T15:00:00
Max High
25,868
Max High At
2025-12-05T15:00:00
Min Low
24,361.75
Min Low At
2025-11-24T10:00:00
Time To Result
4,275.23h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Krown
YouTube · @ECKrown
Reliability
55.01
Success Rate
45.02%
Consistency
90.26
Risk Adjusted
-4.42
Avg Return
-0.27%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
r4BOVef7SNg
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis provides a bearish outlook for BTCUSD, identifying a downtrend and a high pivot at 107461, suggesting a bounce toward 82000, but a downward target of 76500. The video discusses using price action statistics for scalping but states the daily average loss has already been hit around 85000. The overall downside bias is expected to continue, with a very extreme move to the downside and potential movement toward April 2024 levels. The analysts then moves to the NQ1! and ES1!, where both show some downwards trend where the last significant level is Wednesdays high. A different direction is given to XAUUSD, the analysts mentions the intention to buy gold at the time of recording the video. The video further gives an extreme move on the BBWP, predicting a short term basing before a larger longer move, although overall Bitcoin is currently bearish, and notes that that the monthly MACD may cross the downside. The monthly, with previous high success, looks like it will fail as BTC did not bounce above 97,500. The price action indicator suggests that the crown is bottomed and it is a new down trend.

Original Caption

Stay informed with the latest insights on **bitcoin today**, focusing on crucial **btc** movements. We'll explore effective **technical analysis** and provide a detailed **bitcoin analysis**, along with potential **bitcoin trading** opportunities using **price action**. 🟧ByBit (Inverse Perps & High Liquidity)https://partner.bybit.com/b/Cave Learn To Trade & Indicatorshttps://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/main ⬛BloFin (No KYC & 15% discount) https://partner.blofin.com/d/Reduction ️ META SIGNALShttps://metasignals.io/nft Use code KROWN for 10% off FOREVER. ️Cave Discord Trading Community - https://discord.gg/3PJDRbYw44 🟦Bitunix (No KYC & 33% Fee Discount)https://www.bitunix.com/register?vipCode=Discount33 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto Bitcoin,bitcoin,btc,BTC,bitcoin price,btc price,bitcoin price prediction,btc analysis,bitcoin analysis,bitcoin news,when to buy btc,when to buy crypto,bitcoin bull market,bitcoin ta,when buy btc,crypto analysis,bitcoin technical analysis,btc technical analysis,crypto,live trading,crypto trading,crypto news,altcoin,bitcoin technical analysis today,trading crypto,bitcoin today,xrp today,btc prediction,crypto news today,altcoins,bitcoin price target Disclaimer Please understand that leverage trading is very risky and around 80% of people who leverage trade have a net loss over a long time frame. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region. The content in this video are only intended for entertainment purposes only. Please do your own due diligence when making decisions for yourself. 0:00 - Bitcoin's downside bias explained 1:01 - Friday's closing predictions 2:09 - Analyzing Bitcoin's extreme move 4:12 - Volatility versus stochastic setup 5:37 - Measuring Bitcoin's average move 6:14 - Short-term basing point for Bitcoin 7:00 - Bitcoin's target around $82,000 10:00 - Monthly MACD implications for Bitcoin 11:15 - Price action pivots and trend lines 12:10 - Bimonthly stochastic momentum implications 13:00 - Daily crown oscillator behavior change 14:00 - Bitcoin's bearish posture explained

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal