Prediction Case File
US500stockbullishVerified Correct

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Tom Nash2025-11-21T21:06:21monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
2.97%
Performance since published
Correct
Publish Price
6,603.79980469
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
6,800
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
6,500
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
2.97%
Initial Invalidation Distance
9.14%
Risk / Reward
0.32
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
2.97%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality84.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-21T21:06:21
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-26T14:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-26T14:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-26T14:30:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
113.38h
Result
Correct
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Tom Nash
YouTube · @TomNashTV
Reliability
41
Success Rate
27.66%
Consistency
77.97
Risk Adjusted
-12.55
Avg Return
-1.58%
Avg Quality
3.86
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
Qr12GAXQ6_4
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst discusses the current downturn in the stock market, noting the recent drops in Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia, as well as the S&P 500. Palantir is down 6% just yesterday, 14% over the past three weeks, and 25% since November 3rd. Tesla is down 10% over the last three weeks, going from $442 to $340 in a short amount of time. The S&P 500 has fallen from $6800 to $6500 in three weeks. Despite giving exceptional earnings, Nvidia was down 3% yesterday. The analyst states that this recent downturn is normal. He is not changing anything in his own investing strategy because of this. He is continuing to dollar cost average and ignoring the noise. According to the analyst, we're lagging in both returns as well as length for the current bull run in this 3 year market and that as long term passive investors we can continue forward. If we are to have a significant dot com bubble style crash it's not going to happen when there is extreme fear. This is at 25 which is the extreme end of the 'Fear' reading, on the fear/greed index.

Original Caption

Join ROIC Academy - https://www.patreon.com/tomnash Try Stock MVP here: https://www.stock-mvp.com ------------------------------------------ Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal