Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Satoshi Stacker2025-12-01T13:35:03dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-2.14%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
85,835.99
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
91,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
84,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
86,272
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
6.02%
Initial Invalidation Distance
2.14%
Risk / Reward
2.81
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-2.14%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-01T13:35:03
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-12-01T15:00:00
Resolved At
2025-12-01T15:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-12-01T15:00:00
Max High
86,674
Max High At
-
Min Low
83,822.76
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1.4h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Satoshi Stacker
YouTube · @stackersatoshi
Reliability
50.64
Success Rate
38.71%
Consistency
89.82
Risk Adjusted
-8.43
Avg Return
-2.34%
Avg Quality
3.55
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
vpD9Nsdprdo
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes the cryptocurrency and traditional markets, noting a recent drop in Bitcoin's price. The analyst points out that Bitcoin has experienced a drop after the traditional markets opened and mentions key levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and SP500 futures. The analyst suggests that a cautious approach is necessary and the sideways action and further trending lower is in play unless BTC breaks key resistance levels. The video also discusses concerns around MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin and Japanese Yen having stress in their market.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal