Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

KG TRADING - Crypto Elliott Waves2025-12-01T16:03:19dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.85%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
84,524.01
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
67,922.2
Predicted objective
Invalidation
90,310.45
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
86,644.87
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
19.64%
Initial Invalidation Distance
6.85%
Risk / Reward
2.87
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-6.85%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-01T16:03:19
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-12-01T00:00:00
Resolved At
2025-12-01T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-12-01T00:00:00
Max High
86,860
Max High At
-
Min Low
84,442.75
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
-16.05h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

KG TRADING - Crypto Elliott Waves
YouTube · @KGTradingCrypto
Reliability
49.81
Success Rate
37.52%
Consistency
80.94
Risk Adjusted
-16.84
Avg Return
-3.1%
Avg Quality
3.54
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
xcGi7kHSB3M
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) using Elliott Wave theory. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin has completed a bullish run and is currently in a bearish ABC expanding flat correction. A base channel taken from wave 1 and 2 has been breached, signaling a downward impulse. The analyst anticipates a further wave 3 down, potentially reaching a blue box target area between 67922.20 and 74145.05 . An old yellow base channel is expected to act as resistance. A bounce may occur towards the yellow line , however, the price is expected to continue downward after reaching the resistance. On the daily chart, a target around 67922.20 is identified, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibonacci level which is the preferred wave 2 landing which also coincides with a prior support area. Failure to respect 90310.45 would suggest that the analysis is wrong. The price is also exiting the base channel.

Original Caption

Join our Safe and Private Discord Community → Daily analysis requests, Elliott Wave education & Q&As. In this video, we apply Elliott Wave analysis to the crypto market. Learn how to identify trading opportunities, manage risk, and apply the Wave Principle in real time. Perfect for traders who want structured and professional market insights. DISCORD MEMBERSHIPS Patreon Membership → https://www.patreon.com/c/KGTrading YouTube Membership → https://www.youtube.com/@KGTradingCrypto 🟢 GET KGT INDICATOR Free Version 1.0 → Monthly Discord Membership Free Version 2.0 → Lifetime Discord Membership You can send email me directly to → kg.trading.ew@gmail.com Follow on X → https://x.com/KGTradingCrypto Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/kg_trading_elliott_wave/ 🟠 Stock Market Channel → https://www.youtube.com/@KGtradingStocks 🟣 Disclaimer This video is for educational purposes only. We do not provide financial advice. All predictions are speculative. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. #ElliottWave #CryptoTrading #BitcoinAnalysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal