Prediction Case File
MSTRstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-12-02T06:55:56dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-16.62%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
171.5
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
240
Predicted objective
Invalidation
143
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
168.26
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
39.94%
Initial Invalidation Distance
16.62%
Risk / Reward
2.4
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-16.62%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-02T06:55:56
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Resolved At
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-29T05:00:00
Max High
188.36999512
Max High At
-
Min Low
171.5
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,390.07h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
0XcyduqsTG8
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst believes BTCUSDT is chilling at $86,600 and wants to see a drop to 81500 - 82000, then get a bounce, and after break the neckline for ultimate bounce at $109000 territory. Then, MSTR had a brutal day, and then now wick is up and wants to see a bounce into $240, the target price. After that he talks about Vanguard has officially listed BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF, with trading set to go live tomorrow, also showing that in his electrical chart Btc has never dropped below to $71000.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
MSTR Bullish Signal by The Moon Show | Tahlil Plus AI