Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-12-02T20:34:38weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-7.42%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
91,036.39
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
107,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
84,286
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
90,628
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
17.54%
Initial Invalidation Distance
7.42%
Risk / Reward
2.36
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-7.42%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-02T20:34:38
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-29T00:00:00
Resolved At
2026-01-29T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-29T00:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,371.42h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
1MpBKT-sT7U
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst predicts a bullish scenario for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin has formed a new low that is higher than the previous low. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin may test the resistance around $92,000 to $93,000. There is a bullish divergence on the 1-hour chart. If Bitcoin breaks above $92,300, it will likely get a push up towards $100,000 before the end of the year. If Bitcoin breaks above $92300 the price could reach the analyst target of $107000 and if that is reached ethereum could go to 4000.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
BTCUSDT Bullish Signal by The Moon Show | Tahlil Plus AI