Prediction Case File
MSTRstockbearishLive Pending

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2025-12-02T18:07:24weeklyfundamental
Live Outcome
36.08%
Performance since published
Pending
Publish Price
181.2230072
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
115.83999634
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
77
Predicted objective
Invalidation
270
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
171.42
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
57.51%
Initial Invalidation Distance
48.99%
Risk / Reward
1.17
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
36.08%
active
Current Price
115.83999634
Live Score
38.19
Distance to Target Now
33.53%
Distance to Invalidation Now
133.08%
Price Structure Valid
Yes
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
40%
Actionable
40%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible60.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable40.00%
Derived Quality48.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-02T18:07:24
First Checked
2026-05-19T02:08:08
Last Checked
2026-06-11T01:31:43
Resolved
-
Resolved At
-
Resolved Candle
-
Max High
198.39990234
Max High At
2025-12-09T16:30:00
Min Low
104.16500092
Min Low At
2026-02-05T20:30:00
Time To Result
-h
Result
Pending
Validation Status
Daily
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.88
Success Rate
42.29%
Consistency
89.03
Risk Adjusted
-11.26
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.28
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
ncbxfraPm3Y
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis suggests that MicroStrategy (MSTR) is approaching a potential floor and has room to retreat toward $77.00. There is a discussion over the long term effects of the price to decline after it had a great year of 2024 and the short position and also it is said people do not really focus on the crypto market as they focus on gold and silver as save haven. But in the end the price action should determine how the portfolio will behave.

Original Caption

iTrust Capital – $100 Bonus (Crypto IRA & Custody Accounts) https://www.itrustcapital.com/go/aaronbennett Low Fee Exchange: https://aaronbtc.com/low Crypto Strategy School https://cryptostrategyschool.com/ab/ ️ Ledger Black Friday Sales: https://www.ledger.com/aaron-bennett Into The Cryptoverse Charts – 10% Off https://intothecryptoverse.com/r/aaron.bennett Code: aaron.bennett ️ DISCLAIMER This video is not financial advice. It is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this video is a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any asset. Crypto-assets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. These offers are intended for experienced users only and may not be available in your region. Always verify local laws before registering or trading on any platform. I may earn a commission from some of the links below at no extra cost to you. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional. ⸻ Other Exchanges I Use ️ Coinbase: https://aaronbtc.com/Coinbase30 ️ Gemini: https://aaronbtc.com/gemini75 ️ Kraken: https://aaronbtc.com/kraken-2025 Bitunix – https://aaronbtc.com/bitunix ⸻ Hardware Wallets (Self-Custody) ️ Ledger: https://aaronbtc.com/ledger ️ Tangem: https://aaronbtc.com/tangem ️ Trezor: https://aaronbtc.com/trezor ️ Ellipal: https://aaronbtc.com/ellipal ⸻ Gemini Credit Card https://aaronbtc.com/gemini-card Gemini Exchange – $75 Sign Up Bonus https://aaronbtc.com/gemini75 ⸻ Verify Me on Socials Twitter/X: https://x.com/AaronDBennett Telegram: https://t.me/aaronbennett11 Email: bitcoinaaron@proton.me Instagram: https://instagram.com/bitcoinaaron ⸻ LEGAL & REGULATORY DISCLAIMER 1. Content Purpose This channel is operated by a registered business entity. All content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and reflects personal opinions. 2. No Financial, Legal, or Tax Advice I am not a licensed financial advisor. Nothing in this video constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making decisions. 3. Sponsorships & Affiliate Links This video may include sponsored segments or affiliate links. I may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Always conduct your own due diligence before using any platform or service. 4. Jurisdictional Notice Some products, exchanges, or services discussed may be restricted or unavailable in certain regions. Viewers are responsible for verifying whether they are permitted to use any mentioned platform based on local laws. 5. Crypto Risk Warning Crypto-assets are highly speculative and involve substantial risk, including potential loss of capital, extreme volatility, limited liquidity, irreversible transactions, and possible fraud or exploitation. You assume full responsibility for your actions. 6. No Outcome Guarantees No profits, results, or performance outcomes are guaranteed. Information is provided “as is” without warranties regarding accuracy or timeliness. 7. Content Updates Information may become outdated. I reserve the right to update, modify, or remove content without notice.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
Yes
Verified Outcome
No
Included in Analyst Score
No
Included in Target Consensus
Yes
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
Not Final Result
Target Consensus Exclusion
-