Prediction Case File
ETHUSDTcryptobullishVerified Correct

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2025-12-03T16:18:51weeklynews
Live Outcome
10.52%
Performance since published
Correct
Publish Price
3,076.28
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
3,400
Predicted objective
Invalidation
2,800
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
3,052
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
10.52%
Initial Invalidation Distance
8.98%
Risk / Reward
1.17
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
10.52%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-03T16:18:51
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-12-10T18:00:00
Resolved At
2025-12-10T18:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-12-10T18:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
169.68h
Result
Correct
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.88
Success Rate
42.29%
Consistency
89.03
Risk Adjusted
-11.26
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.28
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
9YqT_ubmmuQ
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses the recent surge in Bitcoin's price, currently around $93,000, and Ethereum's rise to over $3,000, attributing the increase to several factors: the increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is 94 percent according to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett's speculated appointment as the next Fed Chair, the end of Bitcoin ETF ban, and Vanguard opening up their brokerage for people to buy crypto. It mentions some counterpoints. MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy and the company's need to sell if Bitcoin sustains a bear market. Citing Jesse Myers the Saylor analysis built on 29 percent growth to the next 20 years. The video ends after mentioning the fear and greed ratio that is at 28 indicating Fear as a classification.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal