Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Jacob Crypto Bury2025-12-04T22:00:48weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-13.24%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
92,213.6
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
100,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
80,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
92,595.9
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
8.44%
Initial Invalidation Distance
13.24%
Risk / Reward
0.64
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-13.24%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-04T22:00:48
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-01-31T00:00:00
Resolved At
2026-01-31T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-01-31T00:00:00
Max High
92,692.36
Max High At
-
Min Low
88,056
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,369.98h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Jacob Crypto Bury
YouTube · @JacobCryptoBury
Reliability
44.33
Success Rate
30.1%
Consistency
80.23
Risk Adjusted
-26.25
Avg Return
-6.72%
Avg Quality
3.26
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
Q1_J44yrbNI
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin, noting its current price of $92,595. It suggests Bitcoin needs to break through the $94,000 resistance level. If it breaks through $96,000 there's a chance it will retest $100,000 by the end of next week implying a 7% move. The analysis points to an ascending triangle pattern on the four-hour chart. It is noted significant support around $83,000 - $80,000. Analyst says he's not adding to his spot holding. The analysis shows previous cycles for bitcoin for reference with 78% and 84% corrections to signal 36% drop isn't significant. He is waiting to buy at $60,000 to $70,000 himself.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal