Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

KG TRADING - Crypto Elliott Waves2025-12-12T21:37:13intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-2.8%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
90,277.47
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
103,137.65
Predicted objective
Invalidation
87,751.56
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
90,000
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
14.25%
Initial Invalidation Distance
2.8%
Risk / Reward
5.09
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-2.8%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

100%
Principal
100%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal100.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable100.00%
Derived Quality88.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-12-12T21:37:13
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-12-14T23:00:00
Resolved At
2025-12-14T23:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-12-14T23:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
49.37h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

KG TRADING - Crypto Elliott Waves
YouTube · @KGTradingCrypto
Reliability
49.81
Success Rate
37.52%
Consistency
80.94
Risk Adjusted
-16.84
Avg Return
-3.1%
Avg Quality
3.54
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
nskMoOMSpys
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) price action on a 4-hour chart, employing Elliott Wave analysis. The market is currently undergoing a complex corrective phase following a significant drop. Two main scenarios are presented: primarily, a three-wave corrective recovery (ABC) aiming towards the 1.00 Fibonacci extension level at 103,137.65. This upward movement is seen as a recovery within an overarching bearish market trend, rather than a full bullish reversal. The wave B of this correction is identified as potentially forming a triangle pattern. An alternative scenario considers an ending diagonal impulse wave before a deeper correction. The confirmation level for a sustained move higher is set at 94,821.34. Crucially, a break below 87,751.56 would invalidate the immediate bullish recovery scenario and confirm an aggressive continuation of the bearish trend. The KGT indicator is noted to show a bullish signal, supporting the near-term upside potential, although the presenter indicates that one more low might occur before the final push higher in the corrective wave.

Original Caption

Join our Safe and Private Discord Community → Daily analysis requests, Elliott Wave education & Q&As. In this video, we apply Elliott Wave analysis to the crypto market. Learn how to identify trading opportunities, manage risk, and apply the Wave Principle in real time. Perfect for traders who want structured and professional market insights. DISCORD MEMBERSHIPS Patreon Membership → https://www.patreon.com/c/KGTrading YouTube Membership → https://www.youtube.com/@KGTradingCrypto 🟢 GET KGT INDICATOR Free Version 1.0 → Monthly Discord Membership Free Version 2.0 → Lifetime Discord Membership You can send email me directly to → kg.trading.ew@gmail.com Follow on X → https://x.com/KGTradingCrypto Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/kg_trading_elliott_wave/ 🟠 Stock Market Channel → https://www.youtube.com/@KGtradingStocks 🟣 Disclaimer This video is for educational purposes only. We do not provide financial advice. All predictions are speculative. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. #ElliottWave #CryptoTrading #BitcoinAnalysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
No
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Ready
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
Not Listed
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
BTCUSDT Bullish Signal by KG TRADING - Crypto Elliott Waves | Tahlil Plus AI