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The analysis for the week ending January 23rd, 2026, begins with the DXY, identifying a bullish trend from late December into early January, marked by a 1-hour change of character (ChoCH) and subsequent breaks of structure (BoS). A unique 'distribution channel' is introduced, suggesting that if DXY maintains its bullish momentum, a pullback into the 99.275-99.300 fair value gap (FVG) area could precede a push towards the 4-hour FVG around 99.671 and 100.021. Acceptance below 99.190 would invalidate the bullish bias for DXY. For EURUSD, a clear bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows is observed. The market is expected to push lower, targeting potential support in the 1.15750 to 1.15366 FVG regions. A wick into the identified 15-minute order block around 1.1615 early next week could offer a shorting opportunity, with the bearish trend remaining intact as long as prices stay below the protected high of 1.17507. GBPUSD also exhibits a confirmed bearish trend from the start of last week, indicated by a ChoCH and subsequent BoS. A pullback into a 1-hour imbalance above 1.34700 is expected before a continuation of the downtrend. The analysis suggests shorting opportunities with a protected high at 1.35218. AUDUSD is noted to be in a sideways mode, but with the New Zealand Dollar showing a bearish ChoCH, the Australian Dollar is anticipated to follow by breaking its protected low at 0.66680 and targeting daily FVGs at 0.66251 and 0.65788. Finally, for XAUUSD, a strong bullish trend is observed, characterized by multiple BoS. The strategy is to buy on pullbacks. Potential retracements into specific imbalances between 4479.790 and 4332.990 are identified as entry points for long positions, with the ultimate target being new highs. However, a deep drop below 4400.000 without a lower timeframe ChoCH would raise concerns for the bullish continuation.
I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy In this week’s SMC outlook, I’m walking through my exact trade plan for the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and XAUUSD for the week ending January 23, 2026. This is the same top-down process I use as a full-time trader, focusing on structure, liquidity, BOS, CHoCH, fair value gaps, order blocks, and context. As always, this is my opinion only and not financial advice. If this helped you, subscribe for more: https://www.youtube.com/justinbennettfx?sub_confirmation=1 DXY Outlook I start with the DXY because it’s my barometer for the rest of the forex market. We’re coming off a clear hourly break of structure, followed by acceptance higher and a strong push off the lows. The key focus early next week is whether price holds above the current distribution channel or shows acceptance back below it. If the dollar stays bullish, I’m watching for a shallow pullback into remaining inefficiencies and a lower-timeframe change of character to continue higher. Acceptance below recent lows would be an early warning sign that this move is only corrective. EURUSD Outlook EURUSD remains in a clean downtrend with lower highs and lower lows intact. Last week played out exactly as expected, with price sweeping equal highs near the top of the distribution channel before rolling over. If we see a retracement early next week, I’m watching a 15-minute imbalance and order block area for a potential short, but only with confirmation. This market stays bearish unless we reclaim the most recent protected high. GBPUSD Outlook GBPUSD confirmed a change of character at the start of last week, shifting my bias to shorts only. Price respected a higher-timeframe imbalance and liquidity zone perfectly before pushing lower. That same liquidity sweep + acceptance below pattern continues to show up, especially when aligned with structure and context. There is still unfinished business above current price, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sweep higher before sellers step back in. Bias stays bearish as long as price remains below the external high. AUDUSD Outlook AUDUSD remains stuck in a sideways range, and structurally, nothing meaningful has changed since last week. I’m watching for a bearish change of character similar to what we’ve already seen in NZD. Until that happens, this market is mostly noise and not one I’m forcing trades on. Once structure breaks, I’ll look for shorts from premium with confirmation. XAUUSD (Gold) Outlook Gold remains in a strong bullish trend after last week’s break of structure. I’m only interested in buying pullbacks, not chasing highs. There are multiple inefficiency zones below current price that could act as support if we see a retrace. If price pulls back into these areas and gives a lower-timeframe shift back to the upside, I’ll be targeting a continuation to the highs. No pullback, no trade. If this breakdown helps, make sure you’re subscribed. I also just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You’ll find the link in the description. Have a great rest of the weekend, and I’ll talk to you again next week. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction & Weekly SMC Outlook 00:18 DXY Outlook (US Dollar Index) 08:08 EURUSD Outlook 10:46 GBPUSD Outlook 13:53 AUDUSD Outlook 14:30 XAUUSD Outlook (Gold) OTHER SMC LESSONS My favorite reversal pattern https://youtu.be/z6osi7TZCZQ BoS and CHoCH made simple https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM Premium, discount, and OTE explained https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8 DXY analysis, EURUSD analysis, GBPUSD analysis, AUDUSD analysis, XAUUSD analysis, weekly forex outlook, smc outlook, forex bias, trade plan Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.
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