Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Krown2025-08-05T13:47:21dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-4.59%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
114,449.96
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
112,190
Predicted objective
Invalidation
119,705
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
114,675
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
1.97%
Initial Invalidation Distance
4.59%
Risk / Reward
0.43
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-4.59%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-05T13:47:21
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-11T01:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-11T01:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-11T01:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
131.2h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Krown
YouTube · @ECKrown
Reliability
55.01
Success Rate
45.02%
Consistency
90.26
Risk Adjusted
-4.42
Avg Return
-0.27%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
2qe2s9oba4U
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The speaker discusses Bitcoin's price action using various technical indicators. Analyzing the 24-hour chart, the speaker identifies the red 3 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA. A CME daily setup trigger happened, suggesting a minimum correction down to the green moving average with a 78.57% profitability. For scalps, a buffer zone is located at 117500. Historical price action on Tuesdays suggests an average gain of just over 2% for positive closings and a 1.75% loss for negative closings. A bullish August is predicted as a bullish trend. On the 4-hour chart, hidden bearish divergence was confirmed. The analyst looks at the monthly time frame, and the analyst says the coin has a strong relationship closing to the 5 EMA. A cross down from 118400 would mean higher time frames are in bearish momentum. The Advanced stoch indicates the same and points to 121500 as a point of failure to break to a higher trend. The analyst expects a re-connect with 5 EMA, and overall momentum is pointed downwards and the analyst says not to bet the opposite direction. A breach of 117500 is needed to claim upwards momentum.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal