Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-11-19T01:11:42intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-7.66%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
92,049.89
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
100,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
85,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
90,834.6
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
8.64%
Initial Invalidation Distance
7.66%
Risk / Reward
1.13
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-7.66%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
40%
Actionable
40%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible60.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable40.00%
Derived Quality52.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-11-19T01:11:42
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-21T07:00:00
Resolved At
2025-11-21T07:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-21T07:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
53.8h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
eqO6W9_zVxk
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The speaker discusses Bitcoin's current bearish trend, highlighting its consistent downward movement and the formation of a descending channel. A potential bullish reversal is anticipated if Bitcoin breaks above the 102,000 resistance level. The analysis also touches on the correlation between money supply and Bitcoin's price, noting that increased money supply can lead to higher Bitcoin prices due to inflation and speculative buying. The speaker also references the performance of Bitcoin ETFs and mentions the upcoming Bitcoin MENA conference.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal