Prediction Case File
DAXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JB Cycles2025-05-05T19:09:37weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
97.48%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
42.81000137
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
1.095
Predicted objective
Invalidation
1.08
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
1.09
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
97.44%
Initial Invalidation Distance
97.48%
Risk / Reward
1
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
97.48%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-05-05T19:09:37
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-05-06T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-05-06T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-05-06T13:30:00
Max High
42.81999969
Max High At
-
Min Low
42.54000092
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
18.33h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JB Cycles
YouTube · @jbcycles
Reliability
33.64
Success Rate
21.88%
Consistency
66.69
Risk Adjusted
12.25
Avg Return
13.62%
Avg Quality
3.14
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
KeUjv6xbpuU
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes the German DAX and S&P 500 (SPX) using a 57-week cycle, concluding that current market conditions are bearish. It mentions that max fear, from a cycle composite, correlates with a market top. The analyst shows a chart for the DAX where the cycle is at its peak and predicts that the downtrend for the market should resume soon, as he doesn't agree with the theory of the 'max fear at the bottom'. He presents an SPX chart where the cycle is also at its peak and the prices have already turned down, confirming the bearish trend for SPX. The video suggests that a rally to an all-time high is unlikely for the S&P 500 and a marginal higher high might occur for DAX.

Original Caption

Todays video from Lars von Thienen inspired me to make a video about the 57 week cycle, allthough he did not mention it in his video (but the double 114 week cycle). When I study the 57 week cycle, I don not come to the same market outlook as Lars... Sentiment Fear Cycles | Market Cycles Report May 5 2025 Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44NlSkC6hz8

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal