Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JB Cycles2025-05-04T15:59:46monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-0.25%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
5,685.72998047
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
5,300
Predicted objective
Invalidation
5,700
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
5,696.67
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
6.78%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.25%
Risk / Reward
27.03
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-0.25%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-05-04T15:59:46
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-05-08T15:30:00
Resolved At
2025-05-08T15:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-05-08T15:30:00
Max High
5,713.83007813
Max High At
-
Min Low
5,578.64013672
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
95.5h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JB Cycles
YouTube · @jbcycles
Reliability
33.64
Success Rate
21.88%
Consistency
66.69
Risk Adjusted
12.25
Avg Return
13.62%
Avg Quality
3.14
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
mMospG0MphI
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on the SPX, noting the possibility of a bear market rally towards the 200-day moving average, around 5746. The analyst uses wavelet analysis, finding the cycle peaked, suggesting that the uptrend is over with a target of 5300 as a likely support area, potentially reached during the summer. A break above the recent highs of 5700, would invalidate this bearish outlook.

Original Caption

My analysis suggest we are making a lower shoulder now in May, and will soon continue the bearish trend. Primary I don´t think we will break above 200MA with continuation, but it not impossible. We could break above and almost make a double top like 1969...

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal