Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Jacob Crypto Bury2025-08-12T00:00:05weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-24.19%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
118,714.95
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
155,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
90,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
119,000
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
30.56%
Initial Invalidation Distance
24.19%
Risk / Reward
1.26
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-24.19%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-12T00:00:05
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-18T00:00:00
Resolved At
2025-11-18T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-18T00:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
2,351.98h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Jacob Crypto Bury
YouTube · @JacobCryptoBury
Reliability
44.33
Success Rate
30.1%
Consistency
80.23
Risk Adjusted
-26.25
Avg Return
-6.72%
Avg Quality
3.26
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
7PIBJF0UYwA
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis discusses Ethereum and Bitcoin, focusing on potential future price movements. Ethereum is currently priced at $4272, with a target of $4771 based on market dominance analysis. A failure price is inferred at $3772. The analysis then switches to Bitcoin, highlighting the logarithmic regression, with a target range of $155000-$167000, with a failure level of $90000. The video notes selling pressure around the 120000 price point. The speaker advises taking profits, especially for those who bought Bitcoin recently, before the end of the current cycle, because of potential diminishing returns.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal