Prediction Case File
DUOLstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

IC Trades2026-03-04T05:15:55weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-9.52%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
101.66999817
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
130
Predicted objective
Invalidation
91.99
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
108.35
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
27.86%
Initial Invalidation Distance
9.52%
Risk / Reward
2.93
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-9.52%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-03-04T05:15:55
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-04-08T04:00:00
Resolved At
2026-04-08T04:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-04-08T04:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
838.73h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

IC Trades
YouTube · @ICMakesTrades
Reliability
51.35
Success Rate
39.62%
Consistency
88.45
Risk Adjusted
-8.5
Avg Return
-0.87%
Avg Quality
3.62
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
DbA8wyTCBG4
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The stock has experienced a significant downtrend, forming a head and shoulders pattern, and has recently broken below a key support level. While there was a brief attempt to recover, driven by some buying interest, the overall sentiment remains bearish. The price is currently consolidating and may see a test of the lows around $60 if the support at $101.61 fails to hold. Conversely, a reclaim of the $108.35 resistance could signal a short-term bounce.

Original Caption

DUOL (Duolingo) stock is seeing buyer movement after positive earnings. Will we finally see a proper uptrend form, or will the sellers continue to push price down? Want to know which stocks I’m watching before they move? Join My Private Watchlist: https://ianctrades.gumroad.com/l/tvmam Want to confidently read charts and take trades without guessing? I built The Traders Framework: Chart Reading, Structure & Decision-Making to teach you exactly how to analyze charts, identify high-probability setups, manage risk properly, control emotions, and execute with confidence. Get Access Here: https://ianctrades.com If you're watching DUOL (Duolingo) stock, this analysis breaks down key levels, potential scenarios, and how broader market conditions could impact price in the coming days and weeks. Subscribe for weekly technical analysis and stock market breakdowns. #duolingo #duol #technicalanalysis ️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing in this video constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading involves risk, and you are responsible for your own decisions.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal