Prediction Case File
US10YstockbullishVerified Correct

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2026-03-28T11:32:59intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
3.65%
Performance since published
Correct
Publish Price
4.44000006
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
4.602
Predicted objective
Invalidation
3.97
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
4.428
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
3.65%
Initial Invalidation Distance
10.59%
Risk / Reward
0.34
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
3.65%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
40%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable40.00%
Derived Quality60.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-03-28T11:32:59
First Checked
2026-05-19T01:38:34
Last Checked
2026-05-19T01:38:34
Resolved
2026-05-19T01:38:34
Resolved At
2026-05-19T01:38:34
Resolved Candle
2026-05-18T14:20:00
Max High
4.61100006
Max High At
2026-05-18T14:20:00
Min Low
4.22599983
Min Low At
2026-04-17T14:20:00
Time To Result
1,238.08h
Result
Correct
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.16
Success Rate
58.06%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.78
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
C-05E6yutnY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

Gold has shown a bearish trend, breaking below support at 4090 and failing to recover, currently trading below the 50-period moving average. The US Dollar Index shows strength, breaking above resistance and maintaining an upward trend. Crude oil and bond yields also show upward momentum, with bond yields reaching new highs. Geopolitical events related to the Middle East war and potential interest rate cuts are influencing market sentiment.

Original Caption

More Crash in Gold ? Crude Oil Next Week Critical Level | XAGUSD & XAUUSD Weekly Update | US Bond Yield is unsustainable Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for economic data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/mohammadarafat.official #xauusdanalysis #forexgoldanalysis #forexgoldupdate #goldforecast #goldprediction #goldsignals #xauusdsignals #silveranalysis #mcx #goldprice #mcxliveupdates #mcxcrudeoil #silverpriceprediction #goldrateprediction #goldtradingstrategy #crudeoil #usbondyield #bondyields these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal