Prediction Case File
XAGUSDforexbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2026-04-15T07:27:26intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.88%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
79.49099731
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
82.2
Predicted objective
Invalidation
78
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
80.105
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
3.41%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.88%
Risk / Reward
1.82
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-1.88%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-04-15T07:27:26
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-04-17T01:00:00
Resolved At
2026-04-17T01:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-04-17T01:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
41.53h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.16
Success Rate
58.06%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.78
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
xco_Dbd8Tb4
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis covers Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD). Gold showed a brief reversal after hitting resistance at 4860, with support at 4790, and maintains a positive trend. Silver is exhibiting a strong bullish trend, with a support level at 78.00 and resistance at 82.20. The speaker advises caution with crude oil (USOIL) due to its weak trend and potential volatility, suggesting avoiding trades until market conditions stabilize.

Original Caption

CRUDE OIL Crashed | Gold Prices Rising | Market Analysis for 15th April | सोने की चाल | चांदी का भाव What will happen to Gold prices after US and Iran talk collapse ? Crude OIl next Target after peace talks fail https://youtu.be/vuJI_nhmcl0 Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for economic data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/mohammadarafat.official #xauusdanalysis #forexgoldanalysis #forexgoldupdate #goldforecast #goldprediction #goldsignals #xauusdsignals #silveranalysis #mcx #goldprice #mcxliveupdates #mcxcrudeoil #silverpriceprediction #goldrateprediction #goldtradingstrategy #Crudeoil #marketanalysis these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal