Prediction Case File
DHIstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)2025-08-14T16:24:51monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-11.51%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
163.86000061
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
195
Predicted objective
Invalidation
145
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
166.32
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
19%
Initial Invalidation Distance
11.51%
Risk / Reward
1.65
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-11.51%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-14T16:24:51
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-03T18:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-03T18:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-03T18:30:00
Max High
184.54499817
Max High At
-
Min Low
149.69000244
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,946.08h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)
YouTube · @FelixFriends
Reliability
67.23
Success Rate
62.29%
Consistency
85.06
Risk Adjusted
-2.09
Avg Return
3.95%
Avg Quality
3.63
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
4kA-VrrHLD0
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes DHI, PHM, and TOL, three stocks in the home builders sector. It mentions a breakout from a 50-day moving average for the XHB homebuilders ETF. The analysis points out the sector's attractiveness due to mortgage rates declines and an expected rate cut at the September Fed meeting, assigning a 99% probability to the cut. DHI has a possible price target of 195, PHM targets a 151, whilst the TOL shares the same conditions. Tariffs having been priced in. For TOL there has already been seen some volume as the price target of a luxury home company. The video also provides a tip on crypto to look into IBIT.

Original Caption

Sign up for the Saturday Live Training here: https://felixfriends.org/training Download the full Workbook at https://felixfriends.org/build Get Our Market Beating Indicator for free for 7 Days: https://felixfriends.org/tradevision Meet Felix Prehn: I'm your host, Felix Prehn. My journey took me from being a novice investor to an investment banker, a corporate lawyer, and an entrepreneur. Investing was my key to early retirement at 40. My goal? To empower YOU to navigate the financial market with ease and transparency, free from the conventional financial system's noise. Let's embark on this journey to financial freedom together! ️This is from my lovely lawyers: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Felix Prehn or Goat Academy Ltd or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Some of the accounts we highlight from time to time are our top performing accounts and the results shown are not typical. Trades shown may be from simulated trading or live trading accounts. *CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:43 Spotting the Opportunity: Homebuilders ETF (XHB) 02:11 Market Context: Housing Shortage & Rates 03:02 Builders Planning Growth in 2025 03:22 Tariffs Are Now Priced In 04:01 Strategy: Breakouts & Chart Setups 04:43 DR Horton Stock 06:14 PluteGroup Stock 08:20 Toll Brothers Stock 10:15 Sector Bonus Picks 11:07 Outro #felixprehn #stockmarket

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal