Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Jacob Crypto Bury2025-08-14T21:06:46monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.75%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
117,956.37
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
145,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
110,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
123,375.1
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
22.93%
Initial Invalidation Distance
6.75%
Risk / Reward
3.4
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-6.75%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-14T21:06:46
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-25T20:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-25T20:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-25T20:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
262.88h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Jacob Crypto Bury
YouTube · @JacobCryptoBury
Reliability
44.33
Success Rate
30.1%
Consistency
80.23
Risk Adjusted
-26.25
Avg Return
-6.72%
Avg Quality
3.26
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
JOAqnhwYtSg
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video presents a technical analysis of Bitcoin, suggesting a potential altcoin season in November or December of the current year. It correlates historical data with Bitcoin's price movements, noting that altcoin seasons often begin when Bitcoin tops out. According to the analysis, Bitcoin could potentially rise to around $140,000 to $150,000 before the start of an altcoin season, then it predicts a possible drop to a bear market. This analysis uses the BLX chart to align red lines with previous Bitcoin tops. The support for historical data indicating a cycle and the prediction for altcoin season before it goes to a bear market or changes crypto forever.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal