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I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy FOMC is right around the corner, and in this analysis I'm walking through exactly how I'm trading gold, the euro, and the pound heading into Wednesday's announcement. We've been calling these moves for weeks now, and the recent follow-through has lined up well with what we've been mapping out using Smart Money Concepts. I'll also break down the GBPUSD short I took this week, why I took it, and where I'm looking to manage the trade going into the FOMC volatility. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold finally gave us the change of character we'd been warning about for three videos in a row. Silver led the way last Tuesday with its own change of character, and since gold and silver move together 98 to 99% of the time, we had a strong heads-up that gold was about to follow. The downtrend from February is still intact with lower highs and lower lows, and the recent acceptance below the prior low confirmed this pullback is alive and well. The move up was simply mitigating an imbalance, and now we're getting that lower high. Looking at the 1H, there's a clear imbalance below 4300 from the March 23rd displacement that could act as a magnet. For shorts, I'm watching the imbalance up around 4640 to 4680 for a potential mitigation followed by a lower timeframe shift before FOMC. EURUSD The euro reversal off 1.18 has played out cleanly. We had the open gap, the mitigated imbalance, and the channel symmetry from those prior lows that allowed us to map this top long before price got there. I shorted EURUSD last week off the 1H change of character and closed it before the weekend for a profit. Right now the market is bouncing off what could be the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. The H&S objective sits around 1.15. More importantly, we've got the first bearish change of character on the daily since 2024, and it wasn't a few pips. We're talking over 50 pips on that close, with a convincing BOS to match. That said, the 4H bullish change of character is still in play, so the euro could absolutely come up and mitigate the area above the recent high before forming a lower high. As long as we stay below that high, I'm looking for lower highs and lower lows targeting 1.16 and possibly 1.15. USD The dollar firming up has been a key piece of this puzzle for the past week or so, and it's a big reason gold finally rolled over. Today the dollar hit some resistance, which is why we're seeing the euro and pound bounce off support. FOMC on Wednesday will obviously be the deciding factor for how this plays out short term, so expect heavy volatility across the board. GBPUSD This is the one I shorted this week. Back at the prior highs we got an LSR, a liquidity sweep reversal, with three taps off resistance, which is a phenomenon you see often at major highs and lows. The trade itself came from price tapping into the imbalance I flagged over the weekend. On the 5M we got two clean BOS prints to the downside, and that's where I entered. I'm still short heading into FOMC. The bigger picture target is the massive imbalance below the lows around 1.33, possibly lower. We saw displacement out of that area with zero retrace, so it sits there as a magnet. That said, you have to respect the bullish change of character on the higher timeframe. A change of character is a signal to look for a pullback, not to chase. The 50% from the recent swing puts us right around current price, so everything below that is discount. Currently I see no reason to be bullish on the euro or the pound given where price is and the imbalances sitting below. But FOMC can change everything in 30 seconds, so manage risk accordingly over the next 24 hours. #SMC #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #FOMC #Gold #XAUUSD #EURUSD #GBPUSD #PriceAction #DailyPriceAction CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro 00:16 Gold (XAUUSD) 04:52 EURUSD 10:26 GBPUSD 14:04 Outro SMC LESSONS BoS and CHoCH made simple https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly) https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk Premium, discount, and OTE explained https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you canβt afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.
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