I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy The S&P 500 and Bitcoin may have just signaled a top going into FOMC, and in this video I break down exactly why I'm leaning bearish on both markets here. Starting with the S&P 500, we've got what looks like a blow-off top on the daily chart after that explosive move higher trapped shorts. But what's actually tradable is the shift we just saw on the one hour timeframe. This is the first real BOS and change of character we've seen during this entire uptrend on SPX. For more conviction, traders should watch the four hour lows. A four hour close below those lows following FOMC would confirm a top is in place. I also walk through the imbalances left behind on this leg up for the S&P 500. There's a clear pocket of unmitigated price down toward 6,600 that remains open for business, and that lines up with the discount zone below the 50% level of this entire move. For Bitcoin, the structure is nearly identical to a previous bear flag setup. We've got the trend line break on the four hour, acceptance below the recent double top low, and BTC rejecting from the top of the channel on the daily. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin already has a fresh bearish change of character with lower highs and lower lows, which most traders aren't talking about. The Bitcoin target I lay out is dramatic but it makes sense when you study the imbalances. Going back to early 2024, BTC had a clean displacement out of consolidation that left an imbalance which was perfectly tagged on this last leg lower. The next equivalent imbalance sits around mid 40Ks on the weekly chart. When you measure the bear flag projection on the daily in linear view, the objective lands right in that same low to mid 40K zone. That alignment is not a coincidence. The four hour BOS on Bitcoin makes 73,600 the key protected low. A close below that level after FOMC would confirm the top. I also cover the BTC vs SPX divergence that started back in October. Bitcoin has been weakening substantially against the S&P 500 for months now, and the crypto market has only ever existed during the good times since 2008. We have not seen Bitcoin stress tested during a real recession or a cyclical downtrend within a larger debt cycle. That's worth thinking about if you're heavily long crypto. Full disclosure, I have shorts on both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin going into FOMC, and I've sized them so I'm not over leveraged given how correlated these two move. These trades were shared live in Discord with full charts and descriptions. This analysis uses Smart Money Concepts including break of structure, change of character, imbalances, displacement, premium and discount, OTE, order blocks, and bear flag projections applied to SPX and BTC. #SP500 #Bitcoin #SMCTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #FOMC #BTC #SPX #MarketStructure #ForexTrading #cryptotradingpro CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:16 S&P 500 structure and blow-off top 1:04 SPX one hour shift and confirmation level 2:27 SPX imbalances and downside targets 4:52 Bitcoin bear flag and four hour breakdown 6:27 BTC weekly change of character 7:12 Bitcoin targets in the low to mid 40Ks 10:14 BTC vs S&P 500 divergence SMC LESSONS BoS and CHoCH made simple https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly) https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk Premium, discount, and OTE explained https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.