Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2026-05-05T14:07:05dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-4%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
81,247.25
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
86,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
78,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
80,593.58
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
5.85%
Initial Invalidation Distance
4%
Risk / Reward
1.46
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-4%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-05-05T14:07:05
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-05-16T00:00:00
Resolved At
2026-05-16T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-05-16T00:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
249.87h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.88
Success Rate
42.29%
Consistency
89.03
Risk Adjusted
-11.26
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.28
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
MELeOLVMsIM
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis covers Bitcoin's upward trend and its performance against gold, noting that Bitcoin has outperformed gold in recent months. It also touches on broader market news including the Clarity Act and Brent crude oil prices reacting to geopolitical events. The speaker shares personal investment insights, emphasizing the benefits of holding Bitcoin in a portfolio. Finally, it mentions the success of Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting their strong inflows and viability.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal