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The analysis focuses on the US Dollar Index (DX) showing a bullish trend with a target of 100.58, invalidated below 98.58 on the 4-hour timeframe. Conversely, EURUSD and GBPUSD are analyzed as bearish, with EURUSD targeting 1.154 (fail at 1.17) and GBPUSD targeting 1.133 (fail at 1.26), both indicating a bearish outlook. Gold (XAUUSD) is also identified as bearish, with a potential short opportunity if it breaks below the 70000-71000 area, targeting 4350 (fail at 4700), invalidating the short below 4700. The presenter also notes the long-term bearish trend on the US Dollar Index and the recent upward momentum, referencing prior support levels at 98.58 and 97.58 which have now been broken. The analysis highlights the importance of observing price action at key levels and the potential for reversals or continuation based on market structure.
Weekly SMC Outlook: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and Yields I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy The US dollar is breaking out, and the euro, pound, and gold are all breaking down. The S&P 500 is showing cracks, Bitcoin looks shaky, and yields are starting to push into multi-decade resistance. Here's my full SMC outlook and trade plan heading into next week. DXY (US Dollar Index) The DXY just printed a bullish change of character on the four-hour above 98.58, confirming the broader shift we've been tracking on the daily and weekly. Price is pushing into 99.20, so early next week I'm watching for a potential pullback into the 98.6 to 98.7 imbalance, or a deeper move toward 98 to mitigate the OTE before the next leg up. The monthly multi-decade channel is still holding, and a confirmed break of the highs opens the door toward 105-106 over the coming weeks and months. EURUSD The weekly bearish change of character is still in play, and the entire run-up was simply mitigating the imbalance above. We're now carving lower highs and lower lows. I'm looking for a move down into the 1.1560 to 1.1580 imbalance, and any low timeframe shift on relief into those upper imbalances is a shorting opportunity. As long as we hold below the highs, I stay bearish. GBPUSD The pound is doing exactly what we've been tracking. We got the change of character, and 1.33 has been the target for weeks. We're mitigating that imbalance now. Like the euro, there's a chance we bounce from this region to mitigate fresh imbalances above, but the overall structure still favors shorts. I'm looking for low timeframe shifts on relief to get short. XAUUSD (Gold) Gold stung this week. I got taken out by $4 on a short before the move played out exactly as planned. The descending channel is still in play. If we get DXY relief early next week, I'm watching gold for a push back into the highs and a low timeframe shift to get short again toward 4,300 and the unmitigated imbalance below. S&P 500 The parabolic rally pushed above the 1.618 extension on Thursday and Friday, and I took a short on a one-minute shift after that exhaustive move. Risk reward is 26 to 1 and the trade is well in profit. The key SMC level to watch is 7,350. A close below confirms the change of character and opens the door for a deeper pullback into untested imbalances. Yields are the variable that could break this rally wide open. Bitcoin Same story as the euro on the weekly. Fresh bearish change of character, the recent move up did nothing but mitigate the imbalance, and I'm still short from the shift with my target in the mid-40s. The unmitigated imbalance from early 2024 plus the measured move from the bear flag both point to the same area. Bitcoin would have to reclaim close to 100K to invalidate the bearish setup. US 10-Year & 30-Year Yields This is the chart everyone should be watching. The 30-year is showing a multi-decade bullish change of character and an ascending triangle into the highs. The 10-year is breaking out of a years-long triangle pattern. If yields go parabolic next week, it will weigh heavily on stocks and crypto. This is the market that breaks everything else. #SMC #ForexTrading #PriceAction #DXY #Bitcoin #GoldTrading CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro 00:21 DXY Outlook 04:21 Yields and the DXY Correlation 07:42 EURUSD Breakdown 11:37 GBPUSD Setup 12:58 Gold Trade Plan 15:24 S&P 500 and My Short Setup 20:07 Bitcoin Outlook and Mid-40s Target 23:28 Why Yields Are the Market to Watch SMC LESSONS BoS and CHoCH made simple https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly) https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk Premium, discount, and OTE explained https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.
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