Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JB Cycles2025-05-29T19:57:49weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-3.18%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
5,912.16992188
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
5,100
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,100
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
5,800
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
13.74%
Initial Invalidation Distance
3.18%
Risk / Reward
4.32
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-3.18%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-05-29T19:57:49
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-06-24T18:30:00
Resolved At
2025-06-24T18:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-06-24T18:30:00
Max High
6,100.24023438
Max High At
-
Min Low
5,843.66015625
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
622.53h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JB Cycles
YouTube · @jbcycles
Reliability
33.64
Success Rate
21.88%
Consistency
66.69
Risk Adjusted
12.25
Avg Return
13.62%
Avg Quality
3.14
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
3B89dUL1IG8
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis indicates a bearish setup for the SPX, predicting a sideways to downward movement for the next three weeks. The VIX wavelet is turning down, suggesting a bearish outlook when compared to the S&P 500. Projections from turning points support this bearish outlook, estimating the market is near a top. The wavelet for the S&P is topping out, suggesting investors should be in cash. Technical levels include possible trendline breaks, moving average tests, and offset breaks, all pointing to a potential selling cascade. This indicates a lower high formation. There's a discussion of a two-week oscillation, and an inverted cycle, relating possible scenarios for upcoming movements.

Original Caption

Sorry, dunno what went wrong with picture/audio on this one... I see a bearish setup into late June...

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal