Prediction Case File
ETHUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Moon Show2025-05-29T16:35:33monthlytechnical, fundamental, news
Live Outcome
-24.38%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
2,644.68
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
8,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
2,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
2,647
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
202.49%
Initial Invalidation Distance
24.38%
Risk / Reward
8.31
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-24.38%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-05-29T16:35:33
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Resolved At
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-02-05T00:00:00
Max High
4,956.78
Max High At
-
Min Low
2,111.89
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
6,031.4h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Moon Show
YouTube · @TheMoon
Reliability
40.12
Success Rate
23.85%
Consistency
81.83
Risk Adjusted
-16.83
Avg Return
-5.17%
Avg Quality
3.43
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
zGOfGt4QDMY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The speaker analyzes Bitcoin and Ethereum, predicting a bullish trend based on M2 money supply correlations. He discusses Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by Q1 2026, if a retracement to $103,000 occurs it will be an opportunity to buy more. Ethereum has a setup to reach $8000, with a potential stop loss below $2500 to mitigate the risk. The potential effect of the US Labor Department's decision to rescind a 2022 guidance that warned fiduciaries about including crypto in 401(k) plans. Other news includes the judge's decision to overturn Donald Trump's tariffs and the President's decision to appeal.

Original Caption

🟨 WEEX: https://themoon.co/DailyWEEX 10-100 USDT FREE* (NO VPN) ️ LBANK: https://themoon.co/DailyLBANK 0% Maker Fee + Up to $13,029 Cashback* (NO KYC) Coinflare: https://themoon.co/DailyCoinflare DOUBLE YOUR DEPOSIT (UP TO $5,000)* BYBIT: https://themoon.co/DailyBybit 10% DISCOUNT & $30,000 BONUS Follow The Moon Show on X: https://x.com/@TheMoonShow Join Our Alerts Channel: https://t.me/TheMoonOfficial GET NORDVPN 72% OFF: https://nordvpn.com/themoon EURO TO CRYPTO: https://themoon.co/ShowKa.app ️ Play Medieval Empires: https://medievalempires.com Hire or Work in Crypto: https://www.CryptoJobs.com Crypto Kid: https://www.youtube.com/@Crypto-Kid THE MOON SHOW: Watch Carl and Crypto Kid give you the latest in crypto! Leave a like, or deal with the consequence of NOT leaving a like. Get in touch: show@moongroup.com #TheMoonShow #Bitcoin #CryptoNews Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:25 - BTC 05:45 - Penguins 06:50 - S&P 500 07:36 - GDP Chart 08:30 - Elon retires from government 09:45 - BTC analysis 12:15 - FTX 14:20 - BTC vs Gold 16:00 - James Wynn 22:55 - Alts 24:40 - Russia and BTC 25:30 - 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025 27:50 - Pakistan and BTC 28:20 - Farage 30:10 - Peter Schiff 34:35 - MetaPlanet 37:25 - Smarter Web Company 38:30 - Genius Act 40:50 - Carl’s Music Video 42:40 - Outro DISCLAIMER The content, opinions and other information in the videos are intended as general information and for entertainment purposes only and it is not to be construed as professional or financial advice. Information in the videos is solely the opinion of the speaker who is not a financial advisor nor a firm. I do not have any representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the accuracy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information. Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk. I, including directors, officers, employees, affiliates, agents and representatives, assumes no liability for any errors or omissions in the information presented nor the availability of said information. I disclaim responsibility for any losses, injuries or damages resulting from the display or use of any information. Investing always comes with a considerable risk. I recommend viewers to do their own research before engaging in any trade activity. The channel may contain links to other channels, internet sites or technologies supplied by third parties. I do not exercise control over legality of Third Party Sites or their compliance with applicable laws. Therefore, I explicitly disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising from your use or access to any Third Party Sites. I do not intend to make any direct or indirect market communication to users and consumers based in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, India or China. By accessing this channel, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined in this disclaimer. PROMOTION AND AFFILIATES The appearance of third-party advertisements and hyperlinks does not constitute an endorsement, guarantee, warranty, or recommendation by me. I am not your broker, intermediary, representative, agent, or advisor. This channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors or affiliates. The promotion only reflects my personal honest opinion of the product. I may receive compensation for the promotions in my videos. Conduct your own research before deciding to use any third-party service. *WEEX Bonus: https://www.weex.com/events/welcome-event *LBANK Campaign: https://themoon.co/LBankNewUser *Coinflare Campaign: https://www.coinflare.com/rewards/bonus/deposit

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal