Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Moneyvest2025-08-21T04:11:38dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.35%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
6,394.87988281
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
6,328
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,481
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
6,395
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
1.05%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.35%
Risk / Reward
0.78
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-1.35%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-21T04:11:38
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-27T17:30:00
Resolved At
2025-08-27T17:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-27T17:30:00
Max High
6,487.02978516
Max High At
-
Min Low
6,352.70996094
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
157.3h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Moneyvest
YouTube · @moneyvestpro
Reliability
56.58
Success Rate
47.08%
Consistency
92.89
Risk Adjusted
-3.12
Avg Return
0.09%
Avg Quality
3.62
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
YiG3PGSNw-A
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis discusses the market dynamics focusing on a rotation from tech/growth stocks to real estate, staples, utilities, and healthcare. It notes that the NASDAQ is down 1.45% but the Dow is flat. The MoneyVest Index is unchanged due to the rotation, with capital shifting between sectors. The analyst shows the S&P 500 chart aiming 6328, setting the failure at 6481. As for NASDAQ index he shows the index is aiming a 20569 level, setting the failure at 21803. Then the video shows technical analysis for Apple (AAPL), aiming a 213 area while invalidation the price at 235. Amazon current support around 216 area with invalidation at 230, aiming that the PLTR support around 120, making that invalidation at 190.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal